A Commodity Insight Africa analysis estimates Zambia's 2025/26 soybean harvest at around 450,000 tonnes, marking a partial recovery from the sharp contraction recorded in 2024. Although production remains well below the record 760,000 tonnes achieved in 2023, the rebound strengthens Zambia's position in Southern Africa's oilseed sector and improves the outlook for regional soybean product trade.

 

Most of the crop is expected to be processed domestically rather than exported as raw beans. Commodity Insight Africa estimates that crushing operations could produce approximately 300,000 tonnes of soymeal, leaving an exportable surplus of around 80,000 tonnes after domestic feed and food requirements are met. This reinforces Zambia's emerging position as a regional supplier of processed feed ingredients rather than a simple exporter of raw soybeans.

 

The outlook is supported by growing demand for protein feed across the region. Soymeal consumption in Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda is estimated at roughly 370,000 tonnes annually, while the region faces a supply deficit of about 130,000 tonnes. This structural shortfall continues to create opportunities for intra-African trade and provides a potential market for Zambia's projected surplus. Zambia is already a recognised net exporter of soybeans within Southern Africa, with shipments to Zimbabwe and South Africa among established trade flows.

 

Demand from the poultry and livestock sectors remains the main driver of soybean utilisation. As these industries continue to expand across Africa, regional demand for soymeal is expected to remain firm, supporting investment in soybean processing and value addition.

 

While transport costs and logistics remain important constraints for exports to East Africa, Zambia faces competition from lower-cost global suppliers such as Brazil and Argentina in the broader soymeal market. Recent trade adjustments, including the easing of restrictions on grain exports following improved harvest conditions, have reinforced expectations of more active participation by Zambian traders and processors in regional markets in 2026.

 

Looking further ahead, Zambia's agricultural development strategy targets soybean production of 3 million tonnes by 2031. If achieved, this would significantly expand export availability and further integrate the country into Southern and Eastern Africa's agro-industrial supply chains as demand for protein feed continues to grow.