South Africa could export around 3 million metric tons of corn during the 2026/27 marketing season, which began in May, according to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), in an analysis published on Monday.

 

If achieved, the forecast would represent a 50% increase from the 2 million metric tons shipped during the previous season. Sihlobo attributed the expected growth to abundant supply.

 

South Africa harvested 16.8 million metric tons of corn in 2026, a record crop and a 1% increase from the previous year, adding to already high carryover stocks from the prior season. With domestic consumption estimated at around 12 million metric tons annually, the country has a sizeable exportable surplus.

 

Pretoria also expects stronger demand from export markets in southern Africa, where some countries could face El Niño-related drought conditions that may reduce harvests during the next agricultural season, according to Sihlobo.

 

Zimbabwe was the leading buyer of South African corn in the 2025/26 season, accounting for around 39% of export volumes, or approximately 780,770 metric tons.

 

Beyond the 2026/27 outlook, the projected increase could signal a recovery for the sector after several years of declining exports.

 

Data compiled by Agbiz shows that South African corn exports fell from a record 4.1 million metric tons in 2021/22 to 2 million metric tons in 2025/26. The decline also reflects weaker international demand for South African corn.

 

Among the factors weighing on demand in some traditional markets, particularly in the Far East, Agbiz identified the abundant supply of low-priced corn on global markets as the main challenge to South Africa’s competitiveness. According to Sihlobo, this has reduced the incentive for buyers to source corn from a supplier as geographically distant as South Africa.

 

Against that backdrop, Agbiz said the corn sector should play a larger role in South Africa’s agricultural export strategy. The country now faces the challenge of consolidating and diversifying its export markets to absorb rising export volumes over the long term.

 

In 2025, corn exports generated $760 million, accounting for 5% of South Africa’s agricultural export revenues.