By the end of the 2026/2027
coffee season, Indonesia could lose its position as the world’s fourth-largest coffee producer to Ethiopia, its main rival, according to the latest forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA projected that Indonesia would harvest 11.38 million bags of coffee, equivalent to 682,800 tonnes, during the season. One coffee bag equals 60 kilograms.
If confirmed, the forecast would mark an 8% decline from the previous season and push Indonesia behind Ethiopia in the global market hierarchy.
In contrast, the USDA projected that Ethiopia’s coffee harvest would increase by 4.73% year-on-year to 12.1 million bags, equivalent to 726,000 tonnes, during the same season.
The diverging trajectories mainly reflect contrasting weather conditions.
Indonesia’s coffee industry reported excessive rainfall that disrupted the flowering of many Robusta crops in key production regions during mid-2025. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s coffee sector benefited from favourable weather conditions, particularly regular rainfall that supported plantations.
Overall, if the forecasts materialise, Ethiopia would surpass Indonesia for the third time in five years, following the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 coffee seasons.
Ethiopia Confirms Steady Growth
For Ethiopia’s coffee industry, the projected harvest of 726,000 tonnes in 2026/2027 would also mark a fourth consecutive year of production growth since the 2023/2024 season.
Overall, Ethiopia’s coffee production would increase by 34% over the period.
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According to the USDA, several structural factors have supported the long-term upward trend. These factors include geographic expansion into areas with favourable agro-climatic conditions, government initiatives promoting improved seedlings and rising private-sector investment in processing infrastructure and commercial plantations.
As a result, harvested coffee area increased by 40,000 hectares over the last three seasons to reach 800,000 hectares in 2026/2027.
“Industry analysts project that Ethiopia will continue its production growth, particularly as investments in improved cultivars, processing modernization and large-scale plantation development mature,” the USDA report stated.
However, Ethiopia’s coffee industry must maintain this growth momentum in an economic environment shaped by persistent challenges, including climate shocks, rising input costs, global price volatility and informal domestic trade, which periodically affect production stability and incentives for farmers.
According to the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA), around 5.9 million farmers currently engage in coffee production across the country.
Over the past three years, the Oromia region consolidated its position as Ethiopia’s leading coffee-producing hub, accounting for 59.5% of harvests. The Southwest Ethiopia region followed with 13.7%, ahead of Sidama with 12.9% and Southern Ethiopia with 7.1%.
Coffee remains Ethiopia’s leading agricultural export product. By the end of fiscal year 2024/2025, the sector generated $2.65 billion in export revenues. The industry now targets $3 billion by the end of fiscal year 2025/2026.
