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China-Africa Trade Information Service
http://info.afrindex.com
China-Africa Trade Information Service
The global copper supply deficit should reach about 25% by 2035, according to the Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) published on Thursday, July 16. The revised forecast marks a modest improvement from last year's projection, mainly because the agency incorporated additional production expected from Africa.
Copper remains a critical metal for global electrification. Manufacturers use it across transportation, construction, data centers and defense industries. However, long-term supply has raised growing concerns in recent years because declining ore grades, rising capital costs, lengthy mine development timelines and slower discovery rates continue to constrain production growth while energy transition policies drive demand higher.
DRC and Zambia lead the improvement
The IEA estimated in its 2025 report that roughly 30% of global copper demand could remain unmet by 2035 under its base-case scenario. The agency has now lowered that projected shortfall to 25%, reflecting progress in several mining projects, particularly in the DRC and Zambia.
Africa's two largest copper producers should together add 650,000 tonnes of projected production capacity by 2035 compared with estimates in last year's report.
In the DRC, higher production forecasts for oxide copper deposits, particularly malachite-rich ores backed by Chinese investment, drive much of the revision. Capacity expansions, including the Kisanfu mine operated by China's CMOC, also support the stronger outlook.
Meanwhile, Zambia expects growth to come primarily from the $2 billion expansion of the Lumwana mine, which Canada's Barrick Mining is developing. Several smaller mining projects should also contribute to future production.
Beyond Africa, Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer after Chile and the DRC, has also improved the global supply outlook. The IEA expects Peru to add nearly 300,000 tonnes of projected production capacity by 2035, while countries such as Canada should also support supply growth by extending the operating lives of existing mines.
Progress continues, but the market remains under pressure
Overall, the IEA's latest projections suggest that supply prospects have improved rather than that the copper market has fundamentally changed.
In Africa, the figures highlight the continent's growing importance to the future balance of global copper markets. However, the risk of a supply deficit remains significant because the forecast depends on mining projects that still require successful execution. Price volatility, operational challenges and geopolitical risks continue to threaten project delivery across the industry.
The IEA based its outlook on the expansion of existing operations and on projects that have advanced sufficiently to justify inclusion in its forecasts. Nevertheless, many risks continue to affect those developments.
In April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) lowered its forecast for global copper production growth in 2026 to 1.6% from 2.3%. The organization cited disruptions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, two of the world's largest copper operations by production capacity.
Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the United States and Iran, have underscored the importance of external risks. Those tensions could disrupt supply chains for sulfuric acid, a key input for the leaching process used in many copper mining operations. The IEA estimates that about 45% of copper production in the DRC relies on this extraction method. These factors illustrate the range of operational and geopolitical constraints that could shape the sector's future.
For now, the IEA's updated projections underscore Africa's increasingly strategic role in securing global supplies of critical minerals. The trend extends beyond copper to minerals such as rare earths and lithium. However, African governments will ultimately need to convert the continent's growing position in global supply chains into lasting economic gains through higher public revenues, job creation and the development of integrated industrial ecosystems.
