Since early May, West Africa's cocoa sector has been hit by a series of disruptions. With the 2025/26 crop season already in its second half in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, there are no signs of easing. Here are the latest developments in the sector across the world's two largest cocoa producers.
Only 48% of Côte d'Ivoire's 2024 cocoa exports can be reliably traced back to producing cooperatives. That leaves more than half of supply flows moving through so-called indirect channels that remain fragmented and opaque.
The finding comes from a study published this month by the non-governmental organization Trase, which noted the figures had remained virtually unchanged since its previous analysis two years earlier. The situation undermines the world's top cocoa producer's ability to demonstrate, as the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will require from December 2026, that individual consignments do not originate from cleared land.
Under that regulation, the government has already begun a phased digitalization of cocoa sales, including a centralized purchasing and payment system designed to streamline supply flows and facilitate compliance checks. For the leading economy of the WAEMU zone, the stakes extend well beyond regulatory compliance. With nearly 80% of its forest cover lost or degraded since 2000, and cocoa widely identified as the main driver of that deforestation, traceability has become a critical tool for reconciling access to the European market, forest protection and the economic survival of millions of smallholder farmers.
Beyond this regulatory backdrop, anger is running high among producers. In recent weeks, many farmers have reported not being paid for the main harvest, a situation that has led to a buildup of unsold stocks in areas including Daloa, Soubré and Duékoué.
In response, the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) dispatched officials to the town of M'Batto in the center-east of the country following clashes with security forces last week. While the situation remains localized for now and has yet to affect global supply, the risk is real. Payment delays are reducing farmers' capacity to maintain their plantations and could weigh on next season's output.
Ghana: growing strains in cocoa marketing
In the world's second-largest cocoa producer, storm clouds are gathering over the Producer Buying Company (PBC), the buyer of last resort. The state-owned company has accumulated debts of 673 million cedis (approximately $57.3 million), including 24 million cedis owed to producers, and now faces asset seizure proceedings brought by a consortium of banks to which it owes 257 million cedis.
Starved of liquidity, the PBC can no longer finance cocoa purchases, even though its mandate is to guarantee farmers a buyer. The company, which once controlled 30% of the domestic market, now handles only a fraction of it, leaving hundreds of smallholder farmers unpaid for months.
Adding to the pressure, relations have soured between Ghana's cocoa regulator COCOBOD and the Licensed Buying Companies (LBCs), which stand accused of fueling smuggling. COCOBOD has alleged that some LBC officials are using public funds earmarked for purchasing local cocoa to finance the acquisition of smuggled beans from Côte d'Ivoire, taking advantage of a favorable price differential. Those beans are then allegedly channelled into Ghana's supply chain, diverting resources meant to pay domestic producers and further destabilizing a sector already gripped by a severe liquidity crisis.
The Licensed Buying Companies association has rejected the accusations, saying member companies do not condone such practices and attributing the irregularities to individual employees acting on their own account. The public confrontation between COCOBOD and the LBCs has laid bare a trust deficit, governance gaps and mounting financial pressure on the sector, at a time when tackling smuggling has become a central regulatory challenge.
Ivorian harvest expected to rise in 2025/2026
Ivorian authorities are projecting a rebound in production for the 2025/2026 cocoa year, following a period of decline driven partly by adverse weather and market disruptions. The harvest is expected to come in between 2 million and 2.1 million tonnes, according to
Coffee and Cocoa Council data. A Reuters survey conducted in March had pointed to a more conservative forecast of 1.8 million tonnes.
CCC Director General Yves Brahima Koné attributed the upward revision in part to the exceptionally high prices seen over the past two seasons. The additional income has allowed many farmers to increase investment in their cocoa farms, including higher fertilizer purchases and improved farm management.
Ghana to host World Cocoa Foundation Partnership Meeting in 2027
Ghana will host the next World Cocoa Foundation Partnership Meeting (WCFPM) in Accra in March 2027. It will be the first time the country has hosted the event, which was established two decades ago, and the authorities intend to use it to showcase Ghana's role in the global cocoa sector.
According to Randy Abbey, the head of Ghana's cocoa regulator, the country plans to call on international buyers to invest in African farms, given the financing requirements of maintaining a viable and sustainable cocoa production base.
Cocoa prices regain momentum
Cocoa prices have been on a fresh upward trajectory since the start of May. While still well short of the record levels reached in 2024, futures contracts have been trading above $3,500 in New York. Prices surged sharply on Monday, May 11, reaching $4,709 in New York — their highest level since January 20. The move reflects a combination of technical and fundamental factors.
Favorable market signals have prompted speculators to cover their short positions. As bean prices begin to rise, investors who had bet on a decline move quickly to unwind those positions and limit losses, buying back contracts in a process that itself adds further upward pressure on prices.
At the same time, market operators are growing uneasy about the potential arrival of El Niño, which could disrupt rainfall across West Africa — the heart of global production — as well as reports of poor flowering in some plantations. Some analysts have already begun revising down their 2026/27 harvest forecasts, though certain meteorological agencies have suggested the most pronounced climate effects may materialize later.
