Global
rice output is projected to reach 552.4 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing season, representing a 1.63% drop from the previous season’s output of 561.6 million tonnes. This forecast was released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (
FAO) in its Food Outlook report published on 18 June.
Output is set to decline or flatline across all global regions, with the UN agency identifying Africa as the sole exception. Asia, the world’s dominant rice-producing region accounting for nearly 90% of global supply, faces bleaker prospects amid El Niño-related weather hazards. Its harvest is expected to fall 1.33% to 495.9 million tonnes.
The FAO nevertheless notes: “In Asia, ample irrigation water supplies, ongoing support schemes and strengthened input subsidy measures could mitigate production losses, keeping overall output at ample levels.”
Outside Asia, both North and South America are poised to record production declines, while harvest volumes in Central America and Europe are forecast to remain unchanged, per the report.
Africa projected to post 1.6% output growth
Defying the global downward trend, Africa’s rice production is expected to rise by 1.6% to 29.3 million tonnes, a gain of 500,000 tonnes. The FAO attributes this upbeat outlook to national food self-sufficiency policies rolled out across multiple African nations, alongside wider uptake of high-yield, water-efficient rice varieties.
Madagascar and Tanzania stand out as key growth drivers. Favourable producer prices have incentivised expanded cultivated areas, which is set to lift harvest volumes in both countries. In Egypt, greater adoption of high-performance seeds is also expected to deliver another bumper crop.
West Africa will further underpin Africa’s overall production expansion. The FAO forecasts positive rice yields across most nations in the subregion. However, prospects dim for Ghana and Nigeria, where farmers continue to grapple with poor profitability and marketing bottlenecks. In Benin, Côte d’Ivoire and Togo, below-average rainfall forecasts may also cap production gains.
This projected output uptick offers an encouraging signal for Africa amid broader global market uncertainty and underscores years of investment in strengthening the local rice value chain. Even so, rapid consumption growth driven by urbanisation and population expansion means the continent remains heavily reliant on rice imports to meet domestic demand.
While the FAO has not yet released full import projections for the 2026/27 marketing season, African nations purchased an average of 18.6 million tonnes of rice per year on the international market between 2022 and 2024.
